Recurrent history

November 27th, 2007 Written by Biz

I’ve always been a keen student of history, it’s been my hobby for many years now and I have spent more money on obscure history books than I care to reckon. A large part of the fascination that history holds is that through the ages, you see exactly the same events repeated over and over…ok, the time, the place, the characters and the detail changes, but the same themes are repeated continually.
 

For this very reason, my favourite subject is German history from the Franco-Prussian war of 1870 to the end of the Third Reich in 1945. Why? Because contained within this short period, one sees all current world events and the actions of politicians mirroring the past in precise detail and it, therefore, becomes something of a challenge to anticipate the unfolding of events based on past templates.
 

Let’s look at some of the most glaring examples.
 

In early 1870, the vacant Spanish throne was offered to Prince Leopold of Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen (a branch of the ruling Hohenzollern dynasty of Prussia and much of the pre-unified German territory). The French, fearing a Spanish / Prussian alliance objected vigorously and hinted strongly about a war, were the offer to be taken up. As a consequence of the French threat, the Prussians suffered a humiliating diplomatic defeat when Prince Leopold was forced to withdraw his acceptance of the Spanish throne.
 

This was, however, not enough for The French; they further demanded that King Wilhelm I of Prussia undertake that no member of the Hohenzollern dynasty would EVER be a candidate for the throne of Spain. To this end, whilst strolling in a park in Ems, Wilhelm was waylaid by the French ambassador to Prussia who raised this very subject. The King, of course, refused the French request quite severely but nonetheless politely.
 

A factual transcript of the events and the matters that were discussed was dictated by the King to his secretary and passed on to the Prussian Chancellor Otto von Bismarck for his perusal. Von Bismarck had the account re-written so as to still be factual but to assume a somewhat more severe and belligerent slant (an equivalent tone in today’s language might read; “French ambassador insults the King…the King tells France to f**k off”). This version, once the international press had suitably sensationalised it caused the French to (rather uncharacteristically) declare war on Prussia. One year later the French were (rather characteristically) defeated.
 

Von Bismarck had actually wanted a war with France to suit his own end of engineering a united Germany. Now think on…what does this remind you of? A country wants to engage in a conflict and so ‘sexes up’ a document? Yep…you’ve got it!
 

But now onwards. In August 1964 two American destroyers were allegedly attacked by North Vietnamese navel forces in the Gulf of Tonkin off Vietnam. The full facts surrounding the exact circumstances will probably never be known but it is known that US forces had been carrying out arguably hostile and provocative actions in the areas for some time, culminating in the attack by the North Vietnamese on 2^nd August. Three torpedo boats attacked the destroyer Maddox who managed to evade them without damage. The US subsequently launched aircraft from a nearby carrier and claimed to have sunk the three Vietnamese boats, but in fact it is likely that the reports were false and that none of them were sunk.
 

The decisive action came on 4^th of August when an alleged night attack took place against the US flotilla. In response to radar sightings of a Vietnamese attack, the flotilla fired a prolonged hail of firepower at the radar targets that were interpreted as being an attack force. False radar images caused by weather conditions probably accounted for the assumption of attack, but reports by the flotilla commander to Washington were purposely interpreted incorrectly (even a report in 2005 by the National Security Agency stated that an attack probably did not take place). Extensive bombing missions against North Vietnam were subsequently ordered as reprisals; it was stated that the enemy had extensive military capability and that they could launch deadly attacks against the US presence at will. The Vietnam War had started.
 

US Government rhetoric at the time stated that the US presence in South East Asia was necessary in order to check Chinese and Russian Communism which was an anathema to all civilization; in fact this was a clash of ideologies with the fate of western civilization at stake…furthermore there was a danger of the situation, if unchecked, escalating into World War Three.
 

At this point let’s see what we’ve got:
 

• An alleged enemy with a large military capability that could attack at any time…seems to me that I’ve heard that one before…only in the modern version, the attack time was 45 minutes!
• A clash of ideologies which if not won, would lead to the ruination of Western civilization…yep…check…ticked that one off too!
• A country whose military capability could lead to World War Three…Wow…full house…they don’t mean Iran do they?

 

It’s all so predictable when you know what to watch out for, so I won’t even cover the Reichstag fire in 1933 and its amazing similarities to 9/11. But sadly, two further things are even more predictable; History always repeats itself in endless cycles and we NEVER seem to learn the recurring lessons of the past.
 

 

Caveat Lector:
The historical detail contained above is drastically summarised and must out of necessity exclude much pertinent supporting information. Readers are encouraged to research the above mentioned conflicts in greater detail to gain a true appreciation of the complexities of the themes that have been touched upon.
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Entry Filed under: Rants & Views